The Belgian property market: A strong pillar in 2024

Belgium also has an active construction sector, with an increase in building permits and housing projects. Local authorities are encouraging urban renewal, making residential areas more attractive. At the same time, public policies aimed at improving the energy efficiency of buildings are helping to increase supply in the market. This combination of factors continues to support the Belgian property market, despite global economic pressures.

However, despite this solid performance, the Belgian property market is not immune to fluctuations. Emerging trends for 2024 point to adjustments in prices and transaction volumes. Let's take a closer look at these developments and their potential impact on the sector as a whole.

In 2024, one of the most striking trends on the Belgian property market will be a fall in prices. This correction, expected after several years of strong growth, is estimated at around -4% for the year as a whole. This decline, albeit moderate, reflects a natural reaction to less favourable global economic conditions, such as rising living costs and uncertainties on the international financial markets.

The inflationary environment, combined with a decline in household purchasing power, is also contributing to this downward pressure on prices. As a result, potential buyers may be reluctant to invest in property, preferring to wait for more stable conditions. Although significant, this fall in prices is not being perceived as a crisis. Rather, it is a market adjustment to more realistic price levels after several years of overheating.

It's important to note that this downturn will not affect all regions equally. In large cities such as Brussels and Antwerp, where demand for housing remains strong, prices may stabilise rather than fall. On the other hand, prices in less attractive or rural areas could fall more sharply. This phenomenon reflects a growing disparity between regions and property types.

In line with the fall in prices, the number of property transactions will also fall slightly in 2024. After peaking in recent years, the Belgian property market appears to be entering a period of stabilisation. The forecast is for around 800,000 transactions by September 2024, which is lower than in previous years.

This decline in sales volume is partly due to increased caution on the part of buyers. Economic uncertainties combined with rising mortgage rates (although still low by European standards) are slowing the pace of new purchases. Belgian households appear to be postponing their property projects until they have a better idea of how economic conditions will develop.

However, this decline in activity does not mean that the market has come to a standstill. On the contrary, it can be seen as a return to a healthier, less speculative market based more on long-term investment decisions. Institutional investors, in particular, continue to view Belgian real estate as a safe haven, supporting the market despite a temporary drop in transactions.

The slowdown in the Belgian property market is not an isolated event, but part of a wider trend observed across Europe. In France, for example, prices for older houses fell by 1.8% in the third quarter of 2007. This phenomenon is partly due to the European Central Bank's restrictive monetary policy to combat inflation. By raising interest rates, the ECB has made mortgages more expensive, reducing access to credit for some households.

The effects of these monetary adjustments are particularly visible in countries where the housing market was overheated. Belgium, although relatively stable, is no exception to this trend. The economic slowdown in Europe, combined with uncertainties related to geopolitical tensions and supply chains, has created a more complex environment for property investors.

In addition, rising construction costs due to rising material and labour prices are putting further pressure on the market. These factors are contributing to a wait-and-see attitude among potential buyers, who often prefer to postpone their property projects until the economic situation is more favourable.

Despite these signs of a slowdown, the Belgian property market as a whole remains stable. Belgium continues to benefit from a robust banking system, with mortgage rates that remain attractive compared to other European countries. In addition, demand for new housing, particularly in the major cities, remains underpinned by long-term demographic and economic factors.

Public policies to promote home ownership and sustainable development initiatives are also helping to maintain a sufficient level of demand to stabilise the market. For example, the Belgian government has introduced tax incentives to encourage energy renovation, which is boosting demand for older properties in need of work.

The stabilisation of the market could also provide interesting opportunities for long-term buyers. Investors, in particular, can benefit from more favourable purchase conditions in a context of slightly declining prices and still relatively low interest rates. This could provide an attractive entry point for those looking to diversify their property portfolios or invest in rental properties.

The Belgian property market, although affected by global macroeconomic factors, remains structurally sound. Forecasts for 2024 point to a period of adjustment, with a moderate fall in prices and a decline in transaction volumes. However, this slowdown is not necessarily synonymous with a crisis. Rather, it seems to mark a return to a more balanced and sustainable market after several years of strong expansion.

For market participants, this stabilisation offers an opportunity to rethink investment strategies and adapt to new market conditions. For their part, buyers could take advantage of this period to negotiate more favourable terms. Overall, the Belgian property market should continue to play a key role in the country's economy, while adapting to the new economic and social realities of the post-pandemic period.

In short, although some adjustments are to be expected, the Belgian property market appears well positioned to navigate through this period of transition. Its sound fundamentals and the public policies in place should prevent too much destabilisation and ensure a degree of continuity over the coming years.